Horizon Scan · Pickles & Soup and Hypenotic

Chili
Crisp

Who's in the jar, who paid for it, and where a new brand still has room. Written for a founder raising money, for the investor reading the deck, and for the buyer deciding whether the jar gets a slot. It reads the category in four directions. Priorities, near the end, cuts it down to the few signals to act on.

Pickles & Soup and Hypenotic  ·  2026  ·  Sample  ·  ~25 min read

Sources are public. Figures from market-research vendors are directional, and we've flagged anything we couldn't confirm firsthand.

Where this starts

The biggest jar never raised a dollar.

Tao Huabi sold her chili sauce from a noodle shop in Guiyang. When a new highway brought truck drivers through in the early 1990s, she gave them free jars for the road, and they spread the word.1 Her company, Lao Gan Ma, now makes about 3 million bottles a day. It reported 5.39 billion yuan (about US$755 million) in revenue for 2024 and has stayed privately held and financially independent.2

The best-known American challengers took the other road. Fly By Jing has disclosed about $17 million in funding, and Momofuku Goods about $56 million.3,4 Each is now in more than 10,000 stores.5,6

So the question for a founder raising money here is narrower than whether chili crisp is growing. What will an investor's money buy that Tao Huabi managed without, and is there a lane left to spend it in?

A checklist of signals, sorted by how fast they move

A Horizon Scan for one product points at a decision: this jar, this price, this shelf. For a founder about to raise, it has a second job. Every claim about chili crisp in a pitch deck rests on a signal someone can check, and an investor will check it. This scan collects those signals and sorts them by speed, because each speed asks for a different kind of attention. When a signal turns into something a business can buy, sign, or stock, such as a store-brand jar or an acquisition, we call it a signpost. Each direction opens with its move: the one action that direction's evidence points to. Priorities, near the end, marks where a signpost has already landed.

Long-lead · years

Build the case on it

Restaurants keep adding chili crisp to menus, and food companies keep paying well for condiment brands. Datassential counts chili crisp up 760% on U.S. menus over four years.7 Condiment brands have sold for hundreds of millions of dollars. No chili crisp brand has yet.

Watch-window · months

Plan for the next category review

A retailer launching its own store brand, a tariff ruling, a category reset. Each one changes the price a new brand can charge.

Short-fuse · weeks

Be ready before it's obvious

A chip brand or a mac-and-cheese box adds chili crisp as a limited flavor. Those launches move in weeks on TikTok and show where the flavor goes next.

Most founders are really hunting for one direction: West, toward what's still open. West only makes sense once South, East, and North have shown you the ground you're standing on.

How this Horizon Scan is organized A compass centered on today's shelf. South reads the past, East the present, West what is emerging, and North the future. Each direction links to its section. NORTH · FUTURE Where is the market going? Menus, flavor spin-offs, and the money behind condiments. EAST · NOW What is happening right now? Four brands, their prices, and what their capital bought. SOUTH · PAST Where did it come from? A noodle shop in Guiyang, China, a Kickstarter, a trademark fight, a price cut. WEST · EMERGING What is just emerging? Lanes no chili crisp brand has claimed yet. Today’s shelf
  1. South · Past Where did it come from? A noodle shop in Guiyang, China, a Kickstarter, a trademark fight, a price cut.
  2. East · Now What is happening right now? Four brands, their prices, and what their capital bought.
  3. West · Emerging What is just emerging? Lanes no chili crisp brand has claimed yet.
  4. North · Future Where is the market going? Menus, flavor spin-offs, and the money behind condiments.

Three readers, three reasons to read it

The same signal means something different on each side of the table. Each reader gets the other side's questions in Priorities.

CPG brand

Owns the shelf risk and the story. Its questions: which lane is still open, what a jar costs to make at the price the shelf is heading to, and whether the founder's connection to the food holds up when a buyer, a partner, or a critic checks. The Momofuku trademark episode in South shows what happens when it doesn't.

Investor

Backs brands under $10 million in sales, whether as an angel, a venture fund, or a small private equity firm, and needs an exit it can reach. Momofuku and Fly By Jing are the headlines, not the comparables. Closer to that size, Mr Bing raised a $1.5 million seed round in 2022 on about $300,000 in yearly sales, and has disclosed about $4.4 million in total since.26,58 At the exit, the nearer buyers are mid-size. Highlander Partners, a Dallas private equity firm, bought a majority of Tapatío in 2026, and Marzetti paid $400 million for Bachan's, a sauce brand founded in 2019.59,60

Distributor or chain buyer

Owns the shelf, and often the store brand next to it. Reads the scan for what the current set is missing, which claims will hold up with the store's name behind them, and whether a jar will sell at a price near its own label. Kroger's Private Selection chili crisp sells for $4.99.37 Mr Bing reached five Kroger divisions in 2022, the same year as its seed round.26

South· 4 minWhere did it come from?
NESW
South · Past
The move

Decide what the money is for before you raise it. Lao Gan Ma grew without outside capital. The American challengers raised to reach the shelf fast, then cut their prices to stay on it.

Scan part · Category origin story

The origin story

A noodle-shop sauce, then a Kickstarter.

Chili oil is old. When Momofuku tried to trademark "chili crunch" in 2024, Jing Gao of Fly By Jing called it a generic term for a condiment that "has existed in Chinese culinary culture for hundreds of years."8 The American grocery jar is the new part, and its history fits on one page.

It falls into three eras. Lao Gan Ma built the product and set the price floor. Fly By Jing and Momofuku built the premium jar and proved Americans would pay several times as much for one. The current era is about who pays for distribution, and what it costs them.

The original 1990s–2010s

One product, sold on taste and price, with no outside money.

1990sTao Huabi hands free jars to truck drivers on a new highway through Guiyang.1
1997Lao Gan Ma's company is formally established. Its trademark application is refused, and counterfeits follow.9
2013Brian Goldberg, an American-born Mandarin speaker, opens Mr Bing, a Beijing crepe shop in Hong Kong. Its chili crisp later becomes the business.10,11

The premium jar 2018–2021

Founders sell direct, and a pandemic turns home cooks into buyers.

2018Fly By Jing's Kickstarter sets a $35,000 goal and raises $120,000.12
2020Momofuku releases Chili Crunch in April to a 20,000-person waiting list.13 A New York Times feature on chili crisp lifts Fly By Jing's sales.14
2021Prelude Growth Partners puts $5 million into Fly By Jing to take it into retail.15

Capital and shelf 2022–now

Investors fund the push into grocery, and the price comes down.

2022Fly By Jing launches in 100 Target stores.16
2023Fly By Jing raises a $12 million Series B.17 Momofuku Goods raises $17.5 million, then $11.5 million, and buys the "Chile Crunch" trademark.13,18,19
2024Momofuku's cease-and-desist letters draw a backlash, and it stops enforcing the mark within weeks.19,20 Fly By Jing drops its price to $9.98 and enters 2,000+ Walmart stores.21
2025Tariffs on Fly By Jing's Sichuan-made products reach about 160%, up from 15%.22 Momofuku Goods raises a $26.75 million Series B.4
2026Mr Bing launches chili crisp BBQ sauces. Momofuku launches a pourable Chili Crunch Sauce.23,24

Two routes have worked. They cost different things.

One route grows on its own revenue and takes decades. The other raises money to reach national shelves in a few years, and pays for it in price.

The self-funded route

Lao Gan Ma, Mr Bing

Lao Gan Ma has stayed private and financially independent for nearly 30 years while becoming the reference jar on Chinese tables.2 Exports now bring in about a tenth of its revenue.25

Mr Bing has raised far less than its American rivals, including a crowdfunding round on Republic, and reports more than 10,000 retail doors.26,23 Its newest products started in restaurant kitchens.23

Slow, and capped by what the business earns. Keeps the founders in control and the price low.

The venture route

Fly By Jing, Momofuku Goods

Fly By Jing sold direct first, took $5 million to move into retail, then $12 million more to reach Kroger and Albertsons.15,17 Momofuku Goods raised about $56 million across four rounds and is in more than 11,000 stores.4,6

Both bought speed, and both have moved toward the mass shelf. Fly By Jing cut its prices by more than 30%, partly by switching to paper labels, on its way into Walmart.27

The fastest path to national distribution. The money arrives with a growth target, and the shelf it buys pushes the price down.

Our read. Capital in this category has bought distribution. It hasn't bought a position nobody can copy. Three brands with very different funding, roughly $56 million, $17 million, and a few million, all reached 10,000-plus doors. An investor will want to know what their money does that a slower, cheaper path wouldn't, and a founder should have that answer before the first meeting.

North· 4 minWhere is the market going?
NESW
North · Future
The move

Pitch the evidence that chili crisp is becoming a permanent flavor, and set your price for where the shelf is heading.

Scan part · Trend and risk signals

Menus are still a gateway, and the product is still turning into a flavor

"This line started in professional kitchens, not a trend report."

— Mr Bing, launching its chili crisp BBQ sauces, 202623

Datassential, which tracks restaurant menus, counts chili crisp up 760% over the past four years.7 Menus matter for a grocery brand because that is where many people meet a flavor first. About 40% of Cholula's consumers discover it at restaurants.28

Whole Foods named crunch its texture of the moment for 2025 and listed crunchier chili crisps among the examples, including Fly By Jing's Chengdu Crunch and its own Whole Foods Market Organic Spicy Sesame Garlic Crunch.29

Snack brands pick it up

Kettle Brand launched limited-edition Chilli Crisp chips in 2025, citing a Mintel finding that social media talk about chili crisp rose 125% in a year.30 Kraft put a limited-edition Chili Crisp Mac & Cheese on shelves at Walmart and other grocers.31

Sauce brands borrow the format

McCormick's Cholula now sells a Chiles & Pepitas Chili Crisp modeled on Mexican salsa macha.32 Momofuku added a pourable Chili Crunch Sauce, and Fly By Jing a chili crisp ketchup.24,14

Our read. Each spin-off teaches more shoppers what chili crisp tastes like, without sending them to the condiment aisle. That grows the category and makes any single jar easier to replace. A new brand's pitch has to say why someone will still buy the jar.

Condiment brands sell. No chili crisp brand has yet.

The buyers are known. McCormick paid $800 million in 2020 for Cholula, a hot sauce with about $96 million in annual sales.33 Campbell paid about $2.7 billion in 2023 for Sovos Brands, whose lead brand, Rao's, started as a restaurant's sauce.34 PepsiCo agreed to buy Siete for $1.2 billion in 2024.35 In 2025 McCormick bought Jurado, a New Mexico chili-mash supplier, for $38.1 million to secure supply for its hot sauces.36

We found no acquisition of a chili crisp brand by a major food company. For an investor, the exit is plausible and untested. Rao's is the closest pattern for Momofuku, a restaurant name turned pantry brand. Cholula is the closest for anyone building from foodservice.

The nearer buyers are smaller. In February 2026 Marzetti, a dressings and sauce company, agreed to pay $400 million for Bachan's, a Japanese-American barbecue sauce founded in 2019 with about $87 million in 2025 sales.60 The same year, Highlander Partners bought a majority of Tapatío, with the founding family keeping a minority stake.59 Cholula itself passed through a private equity owner first: L Catterton bought it in 2018 and sold it to McCormick two years later.61

Four slow-moving facts to check before you raise

  • Where it's made is a margin decisionIn April 2025, Jing Gao said tariffs on Fly By Jing's Sichuan-made products had reached about 160%, from 15% before the trade war escalated.22 Rates have moved since. A jar made in North America takes that variable out of the model.
  • Store brands set the floorKroger's Private Selection Mild Chile Crisp sells for $4.99 for 7 ounces.37 Dollar Tree carries a 3-ounce crunchy chili onion for $1.50.38 In 2025, store-brand sales grew nearly three times as fast as national brands, according to the Private Label Manufacturers Association's Circana data.39
  • The category's name is genericMomofuku held the registered "Chile Crunch" mark and filed for "Chili Crunch," then stopped enforcing both after the 2024 backlash.19 Build the brand on a name you can own outright.
  • Capital is scarce and pickyVenture investment in U.S. food and beverage brands fell to $367 million in the first quarter of 2025, down 43% from a year earlier.40 The first quarter of 2026 came in near $340 million.41 Investors are asking for gross margin and a path to profit before growth.42
East· 5 minWhat is happening right now?
NESW
East · Now
The move

Borrow the mechanics of the four brands below (the Kickstarter proof, the chef's name, the restaurant kitchen, the price that won Walmart) and take them to a lane none of them owns.

Four brands, four ways in

3M
Lao Gan Ma bottles a day2
$50M
Momofuku Goods revenue, 202343
12,000+
Fly By Jing retail doors5
760%
Chili crisp growth on U.S. menus, four years7

Market-size estimates vary widely by research vendor. One puts global chili oil at $1.35 billion in 2025, with North America at 19%.44 Treat any single figure as one vendor's estimate, and label it that way in investor materials.

Scan part · Who's on the shelf

What each brand did, and what to take from it

BrandWhat it didWhat to copyWhat to watch
Lao Gan MaGuizhou · privateGrew from a noodle shop into China's reference chili crisp. Reported 5.39 billion yuan in 2024 revenue with no outside capital.2One hero product, and a price shoppers never question.It sets the floor: $4.97 for 7.41 ounces at Walmart, about 67 cents an ounce.45
Fly By JingSichuan · venture-backedKickstarter at 3.4 times its goal, then direct sales, then retail. About $17 million raised; 12,000+ stores.12,3,5Sell first, raise later. Use collaborations, such as Shake Shack, Panda Express, and Fishwife, to reach new buyers for less than paid media.27Made in Sichuan, so exposed to tariffs. Moved away from direct sales in 2025 to focus on retail.22,14
Momofuku GoodsChef-led · venture-backedLaunched in April 2020 to a 20,000-person waiting list. $50 million in 2023 revenue from fewer than 4,000 stores; now in 11,000+.13,43,6A name people already trust, and a line that grew past the jar into noodles and sauces.The 2024 trademark backlash. Goodwill built on a shared food tradition disappears fast when a brand looks like it's claiming it.20
Mr BingBeijing street food · lightly fundedA restaurant sauce turned grocery brand, now in 10,000+ doors. Its 2026 BBQ line came out of chefs mixing chili crisp into wing sauces.23Start in kitchens. Menus prove the use case before the shelf does.A sauce line puts it up against much bigger sauce brands than a single SKU ever did.

Funding figures are disclosed totals from CB Insights and company filings. Actual capital raised may be higher.

The capital pattern. Momofuku Goods has disclosed about $56 million, Fly By Jing about $17 million, and Mr Bing a small fraction of either. All three now sit in 10,000-plus doors. Door count alone doesn't separate them, so an investor will look at sales per store, margin, and repeat purchase. Those are the numbers a founder should lead with.

Money raised, doors reached

Several times the money, about the same reach

Disclosed funding against reported retail doors. The three American brands land within 2,000 doors of each other on very different amounts of capital.4,3,26

Lao Gan Ma sits off the chart: no outside money, and the largest business of the four.2

Chart as text
  • Mr Bing: about $4.4 million, 10,000+ doors.
  • Fly By Jing: about $17 million, 12,000+ doors.
  • Momofuku Goods: about $56 million, 11,000+ doors.

Door counts are company-reported at different dates in 2025 and 2026. Mr Bing's total is PitchBook's figure and includes a $1.2 million round in October 2025.58

Pricing and packaging

A five-to-one spread per ounce

Store brands and Lao Gan Ma cluster under 75 cents an ounce. Fly By Jing's Walmart price, $1.66, is now the top of the mass shelf. Momofuku and S&B hold above $2.20 through their own site and Amazon.

Chart as text
  • Katayama (Dollar Tree): $0.50/oz
  • Lao Gan Ma: $0.67/oz
  • Kroger Private Selection: $0.71/oz
  • Trader Joe's: $0.75/oz
  • Fly By Jing (Walmart): $1.66/oz
  • S&B: $2.29/oz
  • Momofuku (own site): $2.36/oz

Gray bars are store brands and value imports; lime bars are branded challengers.

ProductSizePricePer ozWhereNote
Katayama Crunchy Chili Onion3 oz$1.50$0.50Dollar TreeTrader Joe's look-alike38
Lao Gan Ma Spicy Chili Crisp7.41 oz$4.97$0.67WalmartMade in China45
Kroger Private Selection Mild Chile Crisp7 oz$4.99$0.71Kroger bannersStore brand37
Trader Joe's Crunchy Chili Onion6 oz$4.49$0.75Trader Joe'sU.S. only38
Fly By Jing Chili Crisp6 oz$9.98$1.66WalmartAfter 2024 price cut46,21
S&B Crunchy Garlic with Chili Oil3.88 oz$8.89$2.29AmazonJapanese style47
Momofuku Chili Crunch5.5 oz$13.00$2.36Momofuku's siteSold direct at a premium48

Prices as listed at the retailers named, 2025–2026. They change often; check before using them in a deck.

Scan part · Shopper segments

Not one buyer: five, and they don't want the same thing

Heat or crunch, price or story

Two questions split the shoppers. Do they want heat, or crunch and garlic? Do they buy on price, or on a story? The premium brands live in the top half. Store brands and Lao Gan Ma own the bottom.

Chart as text
  • Heat, story-led: Explorer.
  • Heat, price-led: Loyalist.
  • Crunch, price-led: Newcomer.
  • Crunch, middle: Texture Hunter.
  • Middle heat, story-led: Clean-Label Buyer.

Positions are a reading of the profiles below, not survey data.

The Loyalist
Lao Gan Ma
Grew up with the original. Isn't looking for an upgrade, just the real thing at the usual price.
They want: The familiar taste, a low price, easy to find
The Explorer
Fly By Jing
Reads food media, buys gifts, pays for provenance. Puts chili crisp on everything.
They want: A founder story, premium ingredients, new flavors
The Newcomer
Trader Joe's, store brands
Found chili crisp recently and wants mild heat at a low price. Trades up once hooked, or doesn't.
They want: Low price, low heat, wide availability
The Texture Hunter
S&B, Momofuku
Buys for crunch more than heat. Garlic-forward Japanese styles suit this shopper.
They want: Maximum crunch, garlic, mild heat
The Clean-Label Buyer
Whole Foods' own organic crunch
Reads the ingredient list and wants organic, fewer additives, and a dietary fit. Retailers have noticed: Whole Foods now sells its own.29
They want: A short ingredient list and a certification
West· 3 minWhat is just emerging?
NESW
West · Emerging
The move

Build on an opening below only if you can show its margin at the price the shelf is heading to. That's the slide an investor will spend the most time on.

Where the openings are

This section rests on less confirmed research than East; module 02, further down, is scoped to firm it up. One opening from our earlier read has closed. Clean-label organic looked open until Whole Foods started selling its own.

01
Made in North America, and saying so
Lao Gan Ma and Fly By Jing are both made in China, and Fly By Jing's tariff bill reached about 160% in April 2025.22 Mr Bing makes its chili crisp in New York.49 A brand that sources and cooks domestically has a cost line an investor can model and a story a shopper can check. It gives up the Sichuan provenance claim, so it needs another reason to exist, such as 02 or 03.
02
Crisps from other traditions
Salsa macha, Mexico's chili-and-nut oil, is growing on menus: a foodservice distributor's trend page, citing Datassential, puts it up 236% over four years. Treat that figure as reported, not confirmed.50 SOMOS put two versions into Whole Foods,51 and Cholula already sells one.32 Malaysian sambal (Homiah) and Calabrian chili crunch are smaller and unclaimed at scale.20,52 A founder cooking from their own tradition has a story Fly By Jing can't tell.
03
Foodservice first
Menus are where the growth data is strongest, and restaurants are where shoppers meet the flavor. Mr Bing's 2026 BBQ line, which includes a foodservice size, came from chefs who were already mixing chili crisp into wing sauces.23 We found no chili crisp brand that has made foodservice its main channel. One that does reaches the retail buyer with proof of use.
04
Chili crisp as an ingredient
Kettle, Kraft, and Cholula have put chili crisp on their own products.30,31,32 Lee Kum Kee and McCormick already sell chili crisp and chili crisp seasoning to food manufacturers.53,54 A brand with a strong name could license it instead. Fly By Jing's collaborations with Shake Shack and Panda Express show the appetite for that.27
Scan part · Trend and risk signals

The risk map, in one place

Four risks travel with any chili crisp business. An investor will ask about all four, so answer them before they come up.

Tariffs and origin

As of April 2025, Fly By Jing's China-made products faced tariffs of about 160%, up from 15%.22 Rates have moved since. Price it in, or make it elsewhere.

The store-brand floor

Store brands sell crunchy chili jars for 50 to 75 cents an ounce.38,37 A premium brand has to justify two to three times that.

Trademark friction

Generic category names can't be owned, and trying draws fire.19 Pick a brand name you can register from day one.

Easy to copy

Mike's Hot Honey's CEO told Nosh in 2017 that "it's pretty easy to replicate a food product or a recipe."55 The protection is the brand, the distribution, and the founder's story. The formula won't protect you.

What a different outcome looks like

Mike's Hot Honey: the sibling condiment that took the slow road

Mike Kurtz started making chili-infused honey in 2010, after tasting it at a pizzeria in Brazil.56 It went onto pizzas at Paulie Gee's in Brooklyn before it went onto grocery shelves. The company raised a $2 million Series A in 2017 to pay for the inventory bigger retailers required,55 said it had reached about $40 million a year in revenue by 2023,56 and is now backed by private equity.57 Restaurant first, modest capital, one product. It's the clearest proof in a neighboring category that a condiment can reach real scale without a venture-sized round.

Scan part · Priorities

Sorting the signals: which ones to act on, which ones to watch

The four directions cast a wide net. This step narrows it. Every factor in the scan is plotted on two questions it has already raised: how fast is it moving, and has anyone already claimed it? Each quadrant calls for a different kind of attention.

Pick a reader to see where they should look first.

Hover or click a dot for what's behind it. The dashed red frame is the four barriers that cut across every quadrant; hover those too.
ConfirmedUnconfirmed candidateIn motionSignpost behind itBarrier
Read the grid as a list

How to use this grid

Treat placements as a starting point for discussion, not a verdict. A factor can move between quadrants as the research modules come back. Salsa macha could be claimed within a year, now that Cholula is in it. The aim is a short list of two to five priorities a founder can defend in a pitch. A list of fifteen is just the scan again.

CPG brand · founders outside the cuisine

You don't need to be from Sichuan to sell chili crisp

Brian Goldberg of Mr Bing is an American who studied in Beijing and ran Beijing street-food shops in Hong Kong and New York before chili crisp became the business.10,49 Trader Joe's sells its own. Heritage helps, and it isn't required. A buyer checks whether the label says plainly what the product is and where the founder's connection comes from. Four routes fit the open quadrants.

Name your real connectionGoldberg's is a year studying in Beijing and a decade of street-food restaurants. State yours as specifically.
Cook from your own traditionSalsa macha, sambal, Calabrian chili: each is a chili crisp with its own history (West 02).
Start in the kitchenChefs adopted chili crisp before most shoppers did. A foodservice-first brand earns its credibility on menus (West 03).
Don't fence off a shared foodThe Momofuku episode shows how fast goodwill goes when a brand looks like it's claiming a tradition. Own your brand name, not the category's.

The risk doesn't go away. A brand that borrows a cuisine's credibility without saying where its own comes from is the first one a critic checks.

Scan part · The investor read

The investor read: both sides of the table

Momofuku Goods has disclosed about $56 million and Fly By Jing about $17 million. An investor backing a brand under $10 million in sales needs nearer evidence: seed rounds like Mr Bing's, and buyers like Highlander Partners and Marzetti rather than McCormick. Truff, a truffle hot sauce in more than 20,000 stores, took its outside money as a minority stake from SKKY Partners, a young private equity firm.62 The two lists below are the same diligence from each side of the table.

For the founder · what an investor will check

Four questions an investor will ask

What does a jar earn at $1.66 an ounce?That's Fly By Jing's Walmart price, the new top of the mass shelf. Store brands sit at 50 to 75 cents. Show gross margin at both.
Where is it made?As of April 2025, tariffs on Fly By Jing's China-made products had gone from 15% to about 160%.22 Rates have moved since. Show the landed cost, or show it's made here.
Who bought before you raised?Fly By Jing's Kickstarter cleared its goal 3.4 times. Momofuku had 20,000 people waiting. Bring proof from people who aren't your friends.
Who buys the company?McCormick paid about eight times sales for Cholula. Marzetti paid about 4.6 times sales for Bachan's.33,60 Nobody has bought a chili crisp brand yet. Name the likely buyers, and why your brand fits them.
For the investor · what to ask the founder

Four questions to put to a founder

What did the last round buy?Mr Bing raised its $1.5 million seed on about $300,000 in yearly sales, and was in five Kroger divisions within months.26 Ask what the company proved before the money, and what the next round has to show.
What is the landed cost per jar?Tariffs on one competitor's Sichuan-made jars rose about tenfold in a year.22 Ask for the cost per jar at today's rates, and the plan if they move again.
Who makes it, and at what minimum run?Mr Bing makes its crisp in New York.49 A brand at this size usually depends on a co-packer. Ask about capacity, minimum runs, and who owns the recipe.
What would the next owner pay for?Under L Catterton, Cholula grew household penetration by more than half in two years, then sold for $800 million.61 Ask which numbers a buyer would value here: households, restaurant accounts, repeat rate.

Lao Gan Ma is the counterpoint. The largest company in the category never took outside money, so capital here is a choice. Say what the money buys that time and revenue can't.

For the founder · what the shelf will check

Four questions a buyer will ask

A distributor or chain buyer has one slot and a set that already holds Lao Gan Ma, a premium Sichuan jar, and often the store's own label. These are the questions the scan says they'll ask before giving up the space.

Does it earn a slot in the set?Name which jar yours replaces. Another premium Sichuan crisp competes with Fly By Jing and Momofuku for the same shopper.
What does it add to the current shelf?A crisp from another tradition, a North American sourcing story, or a format the set lacks adds something (West).
Can the supplier back up its claims?The store puts its name behind the jar. An origin or heritage claim needs a founder story and a supply chain a buyer can check.
Will it sell at a price near the store brand?Kroger's own chili crisp is $4.99 for 7 ounces.37 Bring sales per store per week from current accounts, and restaurant accounts if you started in the kitchen.

The store brand is the buyer's own product. A chain that sells its own chili crisp is weighing your jar against its own margin.

The premium Sichuan jar is taken. Raise for a lane that isn't.

Pick a lane with a margin story

Domestic production and foodservice-first both answer the first two questions an investor will ask: what the jar costs, and why a store brand won't undercut it. A crisp from the founder's own tradition answers the third, which is why this brand.

Bring demand before you ask for money

Fly By Jing and Momofuku both had buyers lined up before they raised. A waitlist, a crowdfunding round, or a list of restaurant accounts carries more weight in the meeting than a market-size slide.

Plan for the price the shelf is heading to

The premium ceiling on the mass shelf dropped to about $1.66 an ounce when Fly By Jing went to Walmart, and store brands sit at well under half of that. Model the business at those prices, not at 2020's.

If you're the brand

Build from the kitchen, make it in North America, and say so on the label.

If you're the investor

Back the brand with menu proof and a landed cost you can check. Model the exit on a buyer like Marzetti or Highlander, not on McCormick.

If you're the buyer

Give the slot to the jar that fills a named gap in the set, at a price that holds up next to your own label.

Our bet

A foodservice-first crisp, made in North America

Menu growth is the strongest evidence in this category, and we found no chili crisp brand that has built from foodservice as its main channel. Making it domestically takes tariff risk out of the model and gives the brand a sourcing story a shopper can check. Mr Bing shows the kitchen path can work on little capital, and Mike's Hot Honey shows a condiment can reach about $40 million in revenue that way. A founder raising on this bet is selling a margin story and menu proof, which is what investors in this market say they want.42 Research module 02 below is scoped to test whether the numbers hold for a specific segment.

Two research add-ons

Each one is scoped to a decision you'll need to make before you launch or raise.

01
Competitor Value Proposition & Positioning Deconstruction
This scan names the key players. It doesn't take apart what each brand says, who it's really talking to, or where its messaging leaves gaps. That's where a positioning comes from, and so do the first slides of a pitch deck.
What you get A side-by-side breakdown of Fly By Jing, Momofuku Goods, Lao Gan Ma, Mr Bing, and the store brands: value propositions, tone, claims, visual identity, and channel-specific messaging. A positioning map, and a gap analysis showing where no one is standing.
02
Niche Segment Deep Dive & Reach Strategy
This scan names the lanes with room in them. It can't tell you what your target customer thinks, buys, reads, or trusts. That takes primary research, and it's the difference between a position that sounds right and one that works.
What you get Detailed personas for one or two target segments: purchase triggers, trust signals, and the beliefs they hold before they meet your brand. A customer journey map showing where conversion is most likely, and a channel and media profile showing where these people spend their attention. If you know your budget range, Rick and his marketing partner Hypenotic.com can match the channel plan to what you can afford to reach.

This is step one of three.

This first Horizon Scan maps the category. A second pass goes deep on the angle that matters most to you: a sourcing story, a channel, a format, or the investor case. A third version follows, sized to your real constraints. Tell Rick which decision is most pressing and he'll scope the next step.

Reach Rick directly at rick@picklesandsoup.com.

DriverA force pushing chili crisp toward the mainstream: menu adoption, a retailer's trend list, a snack brand's limited flavor.
SignalEarly evidence a driver is at work: Datassential's menu counts, Whole Foods naming crunch a trend.
SignpostA signal that has become a product, service, or deal a business can buy, sign, or stock: Kroger's own chili crisp, McCormick buying a chili supplier.
BarrierWhat slows or stops it: a tariff, a store-brand price, a contested name. The same factor can drive one business and block another.

Where these claims come from

Sources are public. Figures from market-research vendors are directional, and we've flagged anything we couldn't confirm firsthand. The small numbers in the text link to these sources. Market-size and forecast figures vary by research vendor, and prices change often; verify both against current sources before using them in investor or buyer materials.

  1. The Irish Times. "The ketchup-rivalling Chinese condiment that has made its creator a billionaire" — Lao Gan Ma's truck-driver origin. (opens in a new tab) irishtimes.com
  2. Asia News Network / China Daily. "Iconic Chinese chili sauce resonates with diverse appetites" — 3 million bottles a day, 5.39 billion yuan revenue, privately held. (opens in a new tab) asianews.network
  3. CB Insights. "Fly By Jing: Financials" — $17.12M over four rounds. (opens in a new tab) cbinsights.com
  4. CB Insights. "Momofuku Goods: Financials" — $55.72M over four rounds; $26.75M Series B, June 2025. (opens in a new tab) cbinsights.com
  5. FBIF 2025 speaker profile, Jing Gao — Fly By Jing in 12,000+ retail stores. (opens in a new tab) foodtalks.cn
  6. Nosh. "Momofuku Cooks Up Nearly $30M Investment" (2025) — 11,000+ retail stores. (opens in a new tab) nosh.com
  7. Datassential. "Chinese cuisine's quiet comeback" — chili crisp +760% on menus over four years. (opens in a new tab) foodsurveys.datassential.com
  8. ABC News. "Momofuku responds to backlash over David Chang's chili crisp trademark battle" — Jing Gao statement. (opens in a new tab) abc13.com
  9. Wikipedia. "Lao Gan Ma" — company founding, trademark refusal, counterfeits. (opens in a new tab) en.wikipedia.org
  10. Government of Hong Kong. "Beijing crepe restaurant opens in Hong Kong" (2013) — Mr Bing and Brian Goldberg. (opens in a new tab) info.gov.hk
  11. Tablet. "Mister Crisp" — Brian Goldberg and the move from restaurants to chili crisp. (opens in a new tab) tabletmag.com
  12. Wikipedia. "Jing Gao" — 2018 Kickstarter: $35,000 goal, $120,000 raised. (opens in a new tab) en.wikipedia.org
  13. Food Dive. "Momofuku Goods raises $17.5M Series A" — April 2020 launch to a 20,000-person waiting list. (opens in a new tab) fooddive.com
  14. Wikipedia. "Fly By Jing" — 2020 New York Times feature, 2025 shift away from direct-to-consumer, chili crisp ketchup. (opens in a new tab) en.wikipedia.org
  15. Nosh. "Fly By Jing Raises $5M to Move into Retail." (opens in a new tab) nosh.com
  16. Modern Retail. "'I never thought we'd go into Costco so early'" — 100 Target stores in early 2022. (opens in a new tab) modernretail.co
  17. PR Newswire. "Fly By Jing Raises $12 Million in Series B" (March 8, 2023). (opens in a new tab) prnewswire.com
  18. Nosh. "Momofuku Goods Raises $11.5M in Second Round This Year." (opens in a new tab) nosh.com
  19. The National Law Review. "Chili Competition: Momofuku No Longer Enforcing 'CHILE CRUNCH' Trademark." (opens in a new tab) natlawreview.com
  20. CNBC. "David Chang and Momofuku will no longer enforce chili crunch trademark" — Homiah and other recipients. (opens in a new tab) cnbc.com
  21. Retail Dive. "Fly by Jing lowers prices, expands to Walmart stores" — 2,000+ stores at $9.98. (opens in a new tab) retaildive.com
  22. Nosh. "Fly By Jing Prioritizes Sichuan Roots Amid Staggering Tariffs" (2025) — tariffs near 160%, up from 15%. (opens in a new tab) nosh.com
  23. Mr Bing press release via Nosh. "Mr Bing Launches Asian BBQ Sauce Line" (May 21, 2026) — 10,000+ doors, kitchen origin. (opens in a new tab) nosh.com
  24. Nosh. "Momofuku Goods Launches a New Collection of Sauces" (Sept. 15, 2026) — Chili Crunch Sauce. (opens in a new tab) nosh.com
  25. China Daily Hong Kong (Jan. 16, 2026) — Lao Gan Ma exports at 10% of revenue. (opens in a new tab) chinadailyhk.com
  26. Republic. "Mr Bing Foods" — crowdfunding offering; $250K revenue (2020), $300K (2021), $1.5M seed (Q1 2022), five Kroger divisions (Q2 2022). (opens in a new tab) republic.com
  27. Inside Retail US. Fly By Jing profile — collaborations, 30%+ price reduction through packaging changes. (opens in a new tab) insideretail.us
  28. CNN via KVIA. "Frank's RedHot owner buys Cholula in $800 million deal" — 40% discover Cholula at restaurants. (opens in a new tab) kvia.com
  29. Business Wire. "Whole Foods Market Forecasts the Top 10 Food and Beverage Trends for 2025." (opens in a new tab) businesswire.com
  30. FoodBev. "Kettle Brand launches limited-edition Chilli Crisp chips" (2025) — Mintel: +125% social discussion. (opens in a new tab) foodbev.com
  31. Sporked. "Kraft Is Adding Chili Crisp To Mac & Cheese." (opens in a new tab) sporked.com
  32. Walmart. "Cholula Chiles & Pepitas Chili Crisp Sauce" — salsa macha-inspired. (opens in a new tab) walmart.com
  33. Food Ingredients First. "McCormick acquires Cholula Hot Sauce for US$800m" — about $96M annual net sales. (opens in a new tab) foodingredientsfirst.com
  34. ABC News. "Campbell will acquire Rao's premium sauces parent company for $2.7 billion." (opens in a new tab) abc7chicago.com
  35. PepsiCo. "PepsiCo to Acquire Siete Foods for $1.2 Billion." (opens in a new tab) pepsico.com
  36. McCormick & Co. Form 10-K, fiscal 2025 (SEC) — Jurado, Inc. asset purchase, March 31, 2025, $38.1M. (opens in a new tab) sec.gov
  37. King Soopers (Kroger). "Private Selection Mild Chile Crisp Condiment" — 7 oz, $4.99. (opens in a new tab) kingsoopers.com
  38. Food Republic. "Save Money With This Dollar Tree Dupe Of A Beloved Trader Joe's Condiment" — $1.50 for 3 oz vs. $4.49 for 6 oz. (opens in a new tab) foodrepublic.com
  39. Private Label Manufacturers Association. "U.S. Private Label Industry Reached $282.8 Billion in Sales in 2025" — store brands +3.3% vs. national brands +1.2% (PLMA/Circana). (opens in a new tab) plma.com
  40. Nosh (BevNET). "Cash Crunch or Comeback? Q1 Food & Beverage Financing Trends" — FABID Q1 2025 report, $367M. (opens in a new tab) nosh.com
  41. Nosh. "CPG Funding Trends: Capital Gets More Targeted" — Northhall Q1 2026, about $340M. (opens in a new tab) nosh.com
  42. FoodNavigator-USA. "CPG startups focus on fundamentals amid tariffs" (2025). (opens in a new tab) foodnavigator.com
  43. Taste Radio. "How Momofuku's 'Objection' Helped It Generate $50M In Sales" (2024). (opens in a new tab) tasteradio.com
  44. Market Research Intellect. "Chilli Oil Market" — market-research vendor estimate, directional only: $1.35B (2025), North America 19%. (opens in a new tab) marketresearchintellect.com
  45. Walmart. "Laoganma Spicy Chili Crisp Sauce, 7.41 Fl Oz." (opens in a new tab) walmart.com
  46. Walmart. "Fly By Jing Xtra Spicy Sichuan Chili Crisp, 6 oz." (opens in a new tab) walmart.com
  47. ASInsight, an Amazon listing tracker. "Best Selling Chili Crisp" (June 2026) — Amazon prices at that date; prices change often. (opens in a new tab) asinsight.com
  48. Washington Journal of Law, Technology & Arts. "Momofuku's Chili Crunch Oil Catastrophe" — $13 per 5.5 oz jar. (opens in a new tab) wjlta.com
  49. Here Here Market. Mr Bing Foods profile — founders met studying in Beijing in 1998; made in New York. (opens in a new tab) hereheremarket.com
  50. Performance Foodservice. "Joy Ride" — salsa macha +236% on menus over four years, attributed to Datassential; secondhand, not independently confirmed. (opens in a new tab) performancefoodservice.com
  51. Prepared Foods. "SOMOS Salsa Macha" — Whole Foods nationwide, $9.49. (opens in a new tab) preparedfoods.com
  52. Taste Report. "Chili crisp: a killer condiment" — Holy Duck (Vancouver), Super Magic Taste (Toronto), Calabrian chili crunch. (opens in a new tab) tastereport.com
  53. Lee Kum Kee USA. "Industrial Newsletter: Chili Crisp is Dominating the Food Industry." (opens in a new tab) usa.lkk.com
  54. McCormick Flavor Solutions. "Flavor Spotlight: Chili Crisp" (2025) — Datassential menu projections for the U.S. and Canada. (opens in a new tab) blog.mccormickflavor.com
  55. Nosh. "Honey, Kraut and Biltong Bring in Investors" (2017) — Mike's Hot Honey $2M Series A. (opens in a new tab) nosh.com
  56. Mike's Hot Honey. "How I Built Mike's Hot Honey Into A $40 Million-A-Year Business" — founder's account; founded 2010, Brazil pizzeria origin. (opens in a new tab) mikeshothoney.com
  57. PitchBook. "Mike's Hot Honey Overview" — private equity-backed. (opens in a new tab) pitchbook.com
  58. PitchBook. "Mr Bing Overview" — about $4.36M raised to date, including a $1.2M round in October 2025. (opens in a new tab) pitchbook.com
  59. Food Dive. "Tapatio hot sauce acquired by private equity firm" (Jan. 2026) — Highlander Partners; Saavedra family keeps a minority stake. (opens in a new tab) fooddive.com
  60. Food Processing. "Bachan's Sauce Brand Acquired by The Marzetti Co. for $400 Million" (Feb. 2026) — about $87M in 2025 net sales; founded 2019. (opens in a new tab) foodprocessing.com
  61. Westfair Business Journal. L Catterton sells Cholula to McCormick for $800 million — acquired December 2018; household penetration up more than 50% in two years. (opens in a new tab) westfaironline.com
  62. Retail Dive. Kim Kardashian's SKKY Partners takes a significant minority stake in Truff — first investment for the firm; Truff in 20,000+ stores. (opens in a new tab) retaildive.com